Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-19 85476.883962 90200.465549 94921.411437 99990.429839 105275.748396 110620.729596 116431.206588
2025-01-26 78905.050525 86228.717718 93750.545890 102042.840517 110917.364325 120119.566800 130372.166177
2025-02-02 74272.808041 83432.724454 93043.331950 103856.903405 115662.987458 128139.234658 142298.082185
2025-02-09 70109.303818 80611.186933 91829.344143 104668.418449 118919.015614 134214.263338 151834.255652
2025-02-16 66083.056730 77574.120717 90045.855774 104535.086778 120850.571008 138599.495241 159311.601346
2025-02-23 63078.161188 75437.242879 89043.211674 105061.724349 123329.744396 143438.600291 167169.814443
2025-03-02 60182.102255 73232.705812 87790.987868 105142.299759 125162.158930 147437.857384 173995.737609
2025-03-09 58335.072331 72112.176467 87665.781914 106409.308456 128262.261368 152811.871232 182346.695218
2025-03-16 55634.354272 69856.485010 86103.457630 105896.429438 129209.633903 155645.359256 187729.410099
2025-03-23 54361.089569 69215.769831 86364.756592 107458.475360 132528.126528 161189.277520 196241.709248
2025-03-30 52853.460554 68216.677569 86134.982072 108380.993194 135050.080752 165780.269648 203639.322021
2025-04-06 51077.799405 66815.215876 85355.654671 108584.958525 136669.237468 169278.249305 209738.010236
2025-04-13 49173.289016 65217.061573 84314.477582 108465.349773 137915.682188 172376.239493 215440.394558
2025-04-20 48447.262098 65050.446451 84996.259224 110429.115181 141678.957470 178494.841042 224792.113323
2025-04-27 47736.704165 64866.068766 85627.685608 112312.045766 145339.172674 184502.876520 234048.238841
2025-05-04 46576.689674 64064.549671 85453.076676 113165.389796 147717.667384 188958.871451 241446.490185
2025-05-11 45013.570470 62691.830686 84513.986511 113020.975209 148830.028334 191855.142786 246945.581288
2025-05-18 43864.878818 61813.283950 84161.909132 113581.315800 150793.983144 195781.142652 253707.489117
2025-05-25 42564.610316 60692.900748 83462.710490 113667.009890 152137.497587 198929.747884 259515.422729
2025-06-01 41890.281446 60371.496974 83767.300801 115016.191619 155064.179377 204041.006609 267769.059898
2025-06-08 40432.832919 58963.146490 82625.227263 114470.057033 155559.876059 206111.001691 272242.917876
2025-06-15 39977.545442 58882.283799 83199.014414 116133.271084 158870.560404 211710.033088 281145.870117
2025-06-22 39263.852863 58426.820748 83260.960730 117115.401066 161302.066918 216210.375265 288694.063563